[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 144/98

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        7   2222 2222
      Darwin                7   2222 2223
      Townsville            8   2222 3223
      Learmonth             7   2222 2222
      Canberra              9   2322 3222
      Hobart                8   2322 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 NOV : 
      Darwin               24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             78   (Active)
      Hobart               51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             21   3544 3422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov    12    Unsettled 
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole continues to decline. Geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : None

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is declining and HF conditions 
are returning to normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Nov   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov   130    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
16 Nov   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is declining and HF conditions 
are returning to normal. 


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