[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       13   3333 3323
      Darwin               15   3332 3433
      Townsville           13   2333 3334
      Learmonth            15   3333 3422
      Canberra             16   2443 3323
      Hobart               16   3443 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 NOV : 
      Darwin               45   (Unsettled)
      Townsville            4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            129   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              151   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   2323 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov    16    Unsettled to active 
14 Nov    12    Unsettled 
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole is declining. Geomagnetic activity is expected to also decline. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Poor-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : Began at 2345UT 08/11, Ended at 2200UT 12/11 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed for mid-latitudes 
with depressions greater than 30% at times. Depressions of 10-20% 
are possible for 13 November due to recent geomagnetic activity. 
Proton flux levels continue to decline and absorption in the 
polar cap regions is abating. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Nov    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   115    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
14 Nov   130    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 11 November 
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Degraded HF conditions 
were observed for mid-latitudes with depressions greater than 
30% at times. Depressions of 10-20% are possible for 13 November 
due to recent geomagnetic activity. Proton flux levels continue 
to decline and absorption in the polar cap regions is abating. 


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