[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1634UT  possible                  lower  South American/
                                                     Atlantic


Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: NA

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2211 1122
      Darwin                5   3211 1113
      Townsville            5   2211 1133
      Learmonth             4   3111 1112
      Canberra              5   2221 1122
      Hobart                4   2221 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 NOV : 
      Darwin               12   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             41   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        NA
           Planetary             NA                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1312 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Nov     6    Quiet 
17 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The high speed coronal hole solar wind stream has returned 
to near normal levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be 
mostly quiet to unsettled for the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : None
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Nov   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
16 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 



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