[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 7 10:13:41 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 178/131
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: A shock was observed in the solar wind around 0914UT
with solarw in speed jumping from 500 to around 600 km/sec. Shock
probably associated with recent solar mass ejection events. A
large transequatorial coronal hole is visible in the eastern
hemispher of the solar disk. A solar region in the south east
quadrant appears moderately bright in xray imagery.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 31 2235 5555
Darwin 29 2125 5555
Townsville 31 2235 5556
Learmonth 31 3225 5555
Canberra 31 2235 5555
Hobart 41 2336 5565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 NOV :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3311 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 35 Active to minor storm
08 Nov 15 Unsettled
09 Nov 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 6 November
and is current for interval 7 November only. A sudden impulse
of 35nT observed around 0949UT. Impulse associated with recent
coronal mass ejection activity. Further geomagnetic activity
expected during first half of UT day today. Coronal hole induced
activity expected around 10 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal-fair Fair Poor
08 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communication expected to be
depressed and degraded for today, following overnight geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Spread F observed southern region sites.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Absorption and Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 80 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 130 near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 135 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 6 November
and is current for interval 7 November only.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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