[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 8 10:15:54 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors
M1/1F 1207UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 180/133
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 450km/sec during
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) was southward (15nT) during the interval 00-12UT on
07 Nov. A large transequatorial coronal hole is approaching the
centre of the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 20 3344 3345
Darwin 20 3343 3255
Townsville 21 3343 3355
Learmonth 23 4334 3355
Canberra 20 3344 3344
Hobart 23 3354 4334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 148 (Severe storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 42 3436 6564
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 15 Unsettled
09 Nov 12 Unsettled to active
10 Nov 35 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-12 November. Geomagnetic activity
expected to decline. However, coronal hole induced activity expected
around 10 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communication expected to be
recover today, with higher MUfs than yesterday. Some high latitudes
sites may be slower to recover. A coronal hole induced disturbance
is expected around 10 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Spread F and absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 100 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 135 near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 135 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Northern region MUfs expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values. Southern region Aus/NZ MUFs expected to be about
15% depressed early in UT day, recovering early in UT day. A
return to degraded HF conditions are expected after 10 Nov.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list