[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: NA        

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   NA                 NA                 NA

COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward 00-04 UT. Solar wind speed slowly declining 
starting the UT day near 600km/sec and ending the UT day around 
500km/sec. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       12   3310 3433
      Darwin               12   4310 3333
      Townsville           13   3311 3433
      Learmonth            15   4311 3433
      Canberra             13   3320 3433
      Hobart               13   3320 3433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 NOV : 
      Darwin               20   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            NA
      Canberra             44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               77   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        NA
           Planetary             NA                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        NA
           Planetary             NA   2544 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov    12    Unsettled 
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Nov     5    Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline from recent 
mild activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Increased absorption observed at high latitudes first 
half of UT day. High latitude HF communication expected to be 
moderately degraded for today, steadily improving. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Nov   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Absorption observed 3 to 13 UT.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov   125    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Nov   135    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Nov   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for interval 6 November only. Southern region 
Aus/NZ MUFs expected to be about 15% depressed this morning. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060