[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:YELLOW      ION: YELLOW
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 195/147

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            185/138

COMMENT: A weak shock was detected in the solar wind at 0133UT 
on 04 Nov. Solar wind speed increased gradually after the shock 
to reach around 550km/sec toward end of UT day. The nort-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward 
04-08 UT. A weak halo mass ejection appears to have occurred 
around 2300/03 Nov - 0200/04 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       17   3443 3233
      Darwin               19   4443 3234
      Townsville           23   454- 3233
      Learmonth            17   3432 4333
      Canberra             20   3543 3233
      Hobart               19   3443 423-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 NOV : 
      Darwin               26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               48   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0012 2222     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    20    Active, with the chance of minor storm periods. 
06 Nov    12    Unsettled 
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for interval 4-5 November. Mild geomagnetic activity 
observed over past 24 hours following a sudden impulse of around 
18nT at approx. 0219 UT. Further active periods expected, with 
chance of minor storm levels during local night hours tonight. 
The recent halo CME may extend activity into 06 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
06 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Increased absorption observed at auroral latitudes second 
half of UT day. High latitude HF communication expected to be 
moderately degraded for next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Nov   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   130    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Nov   120    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Nov   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern region Aus/NZ MUFs expected to be about 15% 
depressed this morning and possibly tommorow morning, due to 
onset of mild geomagnetic activity. Northern region MUFs expected 
to remain near normal. 


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