[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0224UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    1849UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 182/135

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            175/129

COMMENT: M class flares from region in eatern hemisphere of solar 
disk. Further M class flaring expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   3321 1223
      Darwin                8   3321 1223
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth             7   3-21 1223
      Canberra              6   2321 0222
      Hobart                7   2322 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 DEC : 
      Darwin                6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               18   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2112 3110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec    12    Unsettled 
31 Dec    12    Unsettled 
01 Jan     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests very mild increase in geomagnetic 
activity 30-31 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 Dec   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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