[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 00
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 30 10:19:25 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0224UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1849UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 182/135
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 175/129
COMMENT: M class flares from region in eatern hemisphere of solar
disk. Further M class flaring expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 3321 1223
Darwin 8 3321 1223
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 7 3-21 1223
Canberra 6 2321 0222
Hobart 7 2322 1222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 DEC :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2112 3110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 12 Unsettled
31 Dec 12 Unsettled
01 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests very mild increase in geomagnetic
activity 30-31 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 149
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 140 Near predicted monthly values
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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