[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 185/138

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            185/138

COMMENT: Two solar regions show flare potential. Isolated M class 
flaring expected. A backside (directed away from the earth) halo 
coronal mass ejection was observed 28 Dec at 1230UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   3132 3222
      Darwin                7   2121 3223
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth             9   3222 3222
      Canberra              9   3132 3212
      Hobart                9   3132 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1111 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     6    Quiet 
30 Dec    12    Unsettled 
31 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests very mild increase in geomagnetic 
actvity on days 2 and 3 of forecast. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits. 
Also, mild degradation possible at high latitudes on days 2 and 
3 of forecast during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Dec   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec   140    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
30 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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