[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/1F    1544UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 188/141

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133

COMMENT: The region that produced the M4.4 flare is located toward 
the south east limb of the solar disk. Also, another solar region 
just east of the centre of the solar disk is showing increasing 
magnetic complexity. Further M class events likely over next 
few days, if current region development continues. A weak short 
duration type II radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph 
commencing 0348UT on 27 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   2231 3323
      Darwin                9   3231 2323
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            13   222- 3433
      Canberra              9   2231 3323
      Hobart                9   2232 3312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 DEC : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               19   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec     6    Quiet 
29 Dec     6    Quiet 
30 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Effects from M4 event expected to be minimal due to 
regions far eastward location. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Increasing chance for Short wave fadeouts on daylight 
circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Dec   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec   140    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
29 Dec   140    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
30 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs expected to remiain near normal over next few 
days. Increasing chance of shortwave fadeouts due to solar region 
evolution. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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