[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1613UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 189/142

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            175/129

COMMENT: Solar region 9280 and the more recent region 9283 are 
likely to produce some flares over the following days; both show 
an increase in magnetic complexity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2221 1133
      Darwin                5   2211 1133
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth             7   3221 1132
      Canberra              6   2221 1133
      Hobart                5   2222 0123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 DEC : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1101 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     6    Quiet 
28 Dec     6    Quiet 
29 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Conditions are expected to stay quiet over the next 
few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to stay near monthly predicted values 
over the next few days. SWFs are possible. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Dec   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec   135    near predicted monthly values 
28 Dec   140    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
29 Dec   140    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 24 December 
and is current for interval 25-27 December (SWFs) . Ionospheric 
conditions are expected to stay normal over the next three days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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