[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 187/140

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.7E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            185/138

COMMENT: Solar region 9280, now close to central central location, 
and the more recent region 9283 are likely produced some flares 
over the following days, both show an increase in magnetic complexity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   3222 4313
      Darwin               12   3222 4322
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            11   3222 4313
      Canberra             10   2222 4313
      Hobart                7   2212 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1211 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     7    Quiet 
27 Dec     6    Quiet 
28 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active conditions were observed after 1200UT on 25 DEC 
due to transients in the solar wind. Conditions are expected 
to to quieten over the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to stay near monthly predicted values 
over the next few days. SWFs are possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Dec   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec   140    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
27 Dec   145    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
28 Dec   145    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 24 December 
and is current for interval 25-27 December (SWFs) . Ionospheric 
conditions are expected to stay normal over the next three days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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