[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1115UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 193/145

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.3E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            190/143

COMMENT: Solar region 9280, now close to central central location, 
and the more recent region 9283 are likely produced some flares 
over the following days, both show an increase in magnetic complexity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   3222 2133
      Darwin                8   3222 2133
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth             9   3322 2133
      Canberra              6   2222 2123
      Hobart                6   2222 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 DEC : 
      Darwin                5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20   4544 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Dec     7    Quiet 
27 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 22 December 
and is current for interval 23-25 December. Conditions are expected 
to gradually return to quiet levels over the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: MUFs were temporarily depressed on the 24 DEC during 
local day at mid-latitudes and during local night at low latitudes. 
MUFs should should return to near monthly predicted values over 
the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Dec   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values 
26 Dec   145    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
27 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 24 December 
and is current for interval 25-27 December (SWFs) . Mild depressions 
were observed after a long duration IMF Bz negative interval 
on the 24 DEC. HF conditions are expected to return to normal 
over the next three days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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