[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 191/143

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 23 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       16   5332 3223
      Darwin               15   5332 2223
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            16   5323 -223
      Canberra             14   4342 3123
      Hobart               14   4342 3122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1112 1323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Dec     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 22 December 
and is current for interval 23-25 December. IMF Bz turned strongly 
negative (-10 nT) after 1830UT on the 22 DEC for 11 hours and 
remained negative till 1300UT on the 23 DEC triggering active 
to minor storm levels of geomagnetic activity. Conditions are 
likely to quieten over the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Fair conditions were observed at high-latitudes during 
the extensive IMF Bz negative period from 1830UT on 22 DEC till 
11300UT on 23 DEC. MUFs should should remain near monthly predicted 
values over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Dec   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec   145    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
25 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
26 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal over 
the next three days. 

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