[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 00
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 23 10:15:40 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 190/143
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 1211 2234
Darwin 6 2210 2235
Townsville 14 130- ----
Learmonth 4 2111 2124
Canberra 5 1220 2225
Hobart 7 1321 2224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 DEC :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0003 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
24 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
25 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 22 December
and is current for interval 23-25 December. IMF Bz turned negative
(-10 nT) after 1830UT on the 22 DEC, unsettled to active conditions
are likely to follow on 23 DEC. A small and centrally located
coronal hole has now passed the Sun central meridian. Unsettled
to active conditions are expected to continue over the next two
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUFs should should remain near monthly predicted values
over the next few days, with a chance of mild depressions due
to enhanced geomagnetic conditions triggered by a small coronal
hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 150 about 10% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 150 about 10% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 150 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal the
following days with a chance of mild depressions triggered by
enhanced geomagnetic activity due to a coronal hole.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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