[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 195/147

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            190/143


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1112 2222
      Darwin                4   1102 2223
      Townsville            7   1222 2233
      Learmonth             4   2102 2212
      Canberra              4   1102 2212
      Hobart                4   1112 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1012 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Dec     7    Quiet 
24 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 18 December 
and is current for interval 21-22 December. A small full halo 
CME was observed in LASCO images. This has been associated with 
a C7/DF flare 18/1111Z region 9269 N11W06 and a DSF S50E01. A 
small shock was observed at around 11 UT on the 21 DEC, leading 
to unsettled geomagnetic conditions after 1200UT on the 21 DEC. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Dec   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   145    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
23 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
24 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly normal on the 21 DEC following 
the arrival of a shock at around 11 UT on the 21 DEC. Normal 
conditions should prevail over the next two to three days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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