[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 201/153

GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Dec             22 Dec             23 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            195/147


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   1112 0112
      Darwin                2   1002 0122
      Townsville            7   2-2- 2223
      Learmonth             3   22-1 0112
      Canberra              2   1012 0112
      Hobart                3   1122 0112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              5   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2112 2331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Dec    16    active 
22 Dec    12    Unsettled 
23 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 18 December 
and is current for interval 21-22 December. A small full halo 
CME was observed in LASCO images. This has been associated with 
a C7/DF flare 18/1111Z region 9269 N11W06 and a DSF S50E01. Active 
conditions are expected on the 21 DEC following the anticipated 
shock arrival. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal for the next few 
days with a chance of slight depression on the 21 or 22 following 
the arrival of the anticipated shock associated with a CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Dec   158

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
22 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
23 Dec   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal for the next few 
days with a chance of mild degradation following the anticipated 
arrival of a CME on 21 or 22 DEC. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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