[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            195/147


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2221 1112
      Darwin                3   1121 1112
      Townsville            4   3200 0024
      Learmonth             6   3222 1112
      Canberra              4   1122 1112
      Hobart                5   2222 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2333 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec     7    Quiet 
21 Dec    18    Unsettled to active 
22 Dec    14    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 18 December 
and is current for interval 21-22 December. A small full halo 
CME was observed in LASCO images. This has been associated with 
a C7/DF flare 18/1111Z region 9269 N11W06 and a DSF S50E01. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Dec   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Dec   120    Slightly below predicted monthly values 


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