[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 182/135

GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Dec             01 Jan             02 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Isolated M class flaring expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   1122 1112
      Darwin                3   1121 1112
      Townsville            -   ---- ----
      Learmonth             5   2122 2112
      Canberra              3   1122 1011
      Hobart                4   1122 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1322 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Dec    12    Unsettled 
01 Jan     4    Quiet 
02 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Dec   167

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Dec   150    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Jan   150    Near predicted monthly values 


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