[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 182/135

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            190/143


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2121 0112
      Darwin                3   2111 0112
      Townsville            3   2111 0122
      Learmonth             5   3122 1112
      Canberra              3   1121 0112
      Hobart                3   1122 1102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2101 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec     6    Quiet 
16 Dec     7    Quiet 
17 Dec     7    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Dec   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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