[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 165/119

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2111 1013
      Darwin                3   -212 1014
      Townsville            2   1111 1013
      Learmonth             3   1112 1012
      Canberra              3   2111 1012
      Hobart                3   2121 1012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1112 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec     7    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Dec     6    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Dec     7    Quiet to Unsettled 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Dec   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060