[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1507UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 150/105

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            160/114


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2221 1222
      Darwin                8   3-31 122-
      Townsville            6   -212 2222
      Learmonth             4   2111 1222
      Canberra              3   1121 0212
      Hobart                4   2221 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   3222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled 
14 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Dec     6    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Dec   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% since local dawn,
      otherwise mostly enhanced greater than 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 


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