[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 00

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.5E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             148/102            150/105


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   3332 1223
      Darwin                9   3332 1223
      Townsville            8   3-2- 2222
      Learmonth            11   3332 1323
      Canberra              9   3332 1223
      Hobart                9   3332 122-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 DEC : 
      Darwin               32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             69   (Active)
      Hobart               91   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   3433 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec    12    Quiet to unsettled 
12 Dec    10    Quiet to unsettled 
13 Dec     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds are abating following the influence 
of a coronal hole wind stream. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels 
are expected for the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Dec   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times, otherwise 
      near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
12 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Dec   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal for the next few 
days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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