[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 135/89

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 09 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       13   3333 3233
      Darwin               12   3323 3233
      Townsville           16   3533 2223
      Learmonth            16   3334 3333
      Canberra             13   3333 3233
      Hobart               14   3334 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 DEC : 
      Darwin               55   (Unsettled)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            137   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              129   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   4433 4432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec    20    Unsettled to active 
11 Dec    15    Quiet to unsettled, chance of active periods. 
12 Dec    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 4 December 
and is current for interval 7-10 December. The Earth continues 
to be under the influence of a high speed coronal hole solar 
wind stream which is producing mostly unsettled to active conditions. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Poor-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity has produced significant 
depressions for low latitudes and mild depressions for mid latitudes. 
Conditions should return to mostly normal over the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Dec    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% to near predicted monthly
      values during local day, enhanced by 15% during
      local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed up to 15% at times during local
      day, otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
11 Dec   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
12 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 8 December 
and is current for interval 9-10 December. Coronal hole induced 
activity has produced significant depressions for Equatorial 
and northern Australian regions and mild depressions for southern 
Australian regions. Conditions should return to mostly normal 
over the next 24 hours. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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