[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    2231UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 141/95

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   1233 2233
      Darwin               11   1233 2334
      Townsville            3   002- 2024
      Learmonth            10   2233 2323
      Canberra             11   2233 2333
      Hobart               12   1233 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 DEC : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec    15    Quiet to unsettled, chance of active periods. 
08 Dec    20    Unsettled, chance of active and possible minor 
                storm periods. 
09 Dec    20    Unsettled, chance of active and possible minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 4 December 
and is current for interval 7-10 December. Coronal hole induced 
activity expected to gradually increase around 08 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity expected to produce slightly 
degrdaed HF conditions at mid to high latitudes around 08 Dec. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Dec   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Dec   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Anticapted coronal hole induced activty is expected 
to cause slightly degraded HF conditions for southern Aus/NZ 
region around 08-10 Dec. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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