[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Dec             07 Dec             08 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: A trans-equatorial coronal hole is visible in the sun's 
eastern hemisphere. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2222 2112
      Darwin                5   2122 2113
      Townsville            8   3--3 2113
      Learmonth             5   2222 2112
      Canberra              5   2222 2112
      Hobart                5   2222 2102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2333 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Dec    13    Unsettled 
07 Dec    15    Unsettled, chance of active periods. 
08 Dec    20    Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 4 December 
and is current for interval 7-10 December. Coronal hole induced 
activity expected to gradually increase after 07 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity expected to produce degrdaed 
conditions at at mid to high latitudes after 07 Dec. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Dec   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% early in UT day then Mostly near i
      predicted monthly values
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mildly depressed to Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Anticapted coronal hole induced activty is expected 
to cause degraded HF conditions for southern Aus/NZ region around 
08-09 Dec. 

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