[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 152/107

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99

COMMENT: A trans-equatorial coronal hole is visible in the sun's 
eastern hemisphere. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2211 1123
      Darwin                4   2211 1123
      Townsville            4   2211 0223
      Learmonth             4   2211 2112
      Canberra              6   2321 1023
      Hobart                6   2321 1022
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   1133 4431     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec    12    Unsettled 
06 Dec    13    Unsettled 
07 Dec    15    Unsettled, chance of active periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 4 December 
and is current for interval 7-10 December. Coronal hole induced 
activity expected to gradually increase after 07 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildy degraded conditions observed yesterday. Coronal 
hole induced activity expected to produce degraded conditions 
at at mid to high latitudes after 07 Dec. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Dec   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% at Norfolk Island and Christchurch.
      Mostly near predicted monthly values at other sites,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and occassional absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed southern region 
yesterday. Anticapted coronal hole induced activty is expected 
to cause degraded HF conditions for southern Aus/NZ region around 
08-09 Dec. Northern Region MUFs expected to remain near predicted
monthly values.

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