[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 00
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 5 10:22:34 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 152/107
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: A trans-equatorial coronal hole is visible in the sun's
eastern hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 2211 1123
Darwin 4 2211 1123
Townsville 4 2211 0223
Learmonth 4 2211 2112
Canberra 6 2321 1023
Hobart 6 2321 1022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 DEC :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 1133 4431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 12 Unsettled
06 Dec 13 Unsettled
07 Dec 15 Unsettled, chance of active periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 4 December
and is current for interval 7-10 December. Coronal hole induced
activity expected to gradually increase after 07 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildy degraded conditions observed yesterday. Coronal
hole induced activity expected to produce degraded conditions
at at mid to high latitudes after 07 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15-20% at Norfolk Island and Christchurch.
Mostly near predicted monthly values at other sites,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F and occassional absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed southern region
yesterday. Anticapted coronal hole induced activty is expected
to cause degraded HF conditions for southern Aus/NZ region around
08-09 Dec. Northern Region MUFs expected to remain near predicted
monthly values.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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