[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 164/118

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            155/109

COMMENT: A possible very weak shock observed around 0310UT 03 
Dec. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward after this time. Several new small regions 
have emerged on the disk. A coronal hole is visible in xray
imagery in the sun's easterm hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       12   2332 3332
      Darwin               14   2332 3342
      Townsville           12   3332 2331
      Learmonth            11   2222 3-42
      Canberra             13   2341 3332
      Hobart               13   1341 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1012 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Dec    12    Unsettled 
06 Dec    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Midly disturbed conditions due to southward interplanetary 
magnetic fieled. Recurrence suggests a weak recurrent pattern 
6-8 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Ocassional absorption, and spread F observed on high 
latitudes, ionograms. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Dec   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      becoming depressed 15-20% after local dawn at
      some sites.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
      Occasional absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec   125    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed southern region, 
during local night hours last night. Mildly depressed MUFs may 
be briefly experienced after local dawn at some southern region 
sites. 


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