[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 00

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 144/98

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            150/105


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   2233 3233
      Darwin               13   2233 4233
      Townsville           11   2233 3233
      Learmonth            12   323- 3233
      Canberra             13   2343 3223
      Hobart               13   2343 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 DEC : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   0132 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec    20    Unsettled, chance of active and possible minor 
                storm periods. 
09 Dec    20    Unsettled, chance of active and possible minor 
                storm periods. 
10 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 4 December 
and is current for interval 7-10 December. Coronal hole induced 
activity expected to gradually increase and persist for next 
couple of days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity expected to produce slightly 
degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes for next couple 
of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Dec   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 130

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   130    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Dec   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
10 Dec   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Anticapted coronal hole induced activty is expected 
to cause slightly degraded HF conditions for southern Aus/NZ 
region around 08-10 Dec. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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