[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 15 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 15 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Oct   108    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.8    0415UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.7    0718UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    1410UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.7    2228UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      109
Oct      89
Nov      89


2. FORECAST (16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Oct    95    Fair             Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct    65    Normal-fair      Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
18 Oct    95    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 94 was issued on 
15 October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Oct were near predicted 
monthly values. A shortwave fadeout was observed 15/0352-0529UT, 
impacting lower HF frequencies. MUFs are expected to be generally 
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 17 and 19-Oct. 
MUFs are expected to be 15% depressed on 17-Oct due to an anticipated 
increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au