[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 14 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Oct   100    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    0041UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.0    1247UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.1    2036UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      109
Oct      89
Nov      89


2. FORECAST (15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Oct    95    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct    70    Fair             Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
17 Oct    70    Normal-fair      Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 93 was issued on 
13 October and is current for 13-15 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Oct were generally 
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart 
during local night hours. A minor shortwave fadeout was observed 
14/0038-0045UT, impacting lower HF frequencies. MUFs are expected 
to be generally expected to be near predicted monthly values 
on 15-Oct, with mild 15% depressions possible at times. Southern 
Australian region MUFs may become 15% depressed over 16-17 Oct 
due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au