[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 15 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
15 Sep   125    Fair-normal    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      159
Sep      117
Oct      116


2. FORECAST (16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
16 Sep   100    Poor             Depressed 5 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
17 Sep   130    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
18 Sep   130    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 102 was 
issued on 14 September and is current for 16-17 Sep. Maximum 
usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian region on 
UT day 15-Sep were near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the 
southern Australian region were near predicted monthly values 
to depressed by up to 20%, with the strongest depressions observed 
during local night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart throughout 
the day, and at Perth, Canberra and Brisbane during local night. 
MUFs on 16-Sep are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
for the first part of the day. Following expected geomagnetic 
activity in the middle of the day, depressions of up to 20% are 
expected particularly in the southern Australian region. MUFs 
are expected to continue to be depressed on 17-Sep, with a recovery 
towards near predicted monthly values possible on 18-Sep. Shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au