[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 Sep   120    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0433UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.0    0741UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X4.5    1529UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      159
Sep      117
Oct      116


2. FORECAST (15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 Sep   130    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep   100    Poor             Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
17 Sep   120    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 101 was issued on 
13 September and is current for 13-15 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the northern Australian region on UT day 14-Sep were 
near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the southern Australian 
region were near predicted monthly values to depressed by up 
to 30%, with the strongest depressions observed during local 
daylight hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart, Perth and Canberra. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 15-Sep, 
with depressions possible in the southern Australian region. 
Significant depressions, especially at high latitudes, are expected 
on 16-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected 
to be in recovery towards predicted monthly values on 17-Sep.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au