[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 27 October 24 issued 2342 UT on 27 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (27 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
27 Oct   128    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.8   2324UT  possible   lower   West Pacific

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased ionospheric 
      absorption observed at Mawson and Casey.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26/1850UT and is in progress.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
28 Oct   140    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced
29 Oct   100    Fair             Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
30 Oct   120    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 122 was issued on 
26 October and is current for 26-28 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF 
Communications Warning 123 was issued on 27 October and is current 
for 28 Oct only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 27-Oct were 15% depressed to near predicted 
values during the local day and 25% enhanced after local dawn. 
Anticipated geomagnetic activity from a CME arrival has yet to 
eventuate and MUFs are now expected to be near normal to 20% 
enhanced on 28-Oct. MUFs may become 15% depressed in the southern 
Australian region late 28/29-Oct if geomagnetic activity from 
a glancing blow CME eventuates. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au