[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 26 October 24 issued 2339 UT on 26 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (26 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
26 Oct   154    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.5    0623UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.8    0722UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M2.2    1150UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.8    1206UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.6    1416UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26 10 2024 1850UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
27 Oct   145    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced.
28 Oct    90    Fair             Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
29 Oct   100    Fair-normal      Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 121 was 
issued on 24 October and is current for 26-27 Oct. ASWFC SWF 
HF Communications Warning 122 was issued on 26 October and is 
current for 26-28 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the 
Australian region on UT day 26-Oct were near predicted values 
to 35% enhanced. Strong enhancements were observed during local 
night hours at Darwin. Spread F was observed during local night 
hours at Hobart. Equatorial scintillation was observed at Darwin 
during the interval 26/1116-1410UT. A shortwave fadeout impacting 
only the lower HF frequencies was observed in the northwest Australian 
region (Darwin and Learmonth) during the approximate interval 
26/0615-0720UT. Due to weaker overnight geomagnetic activity 
depressed conditions are now not expected for the southern Australian 
region on 27-Oct. MUFs are expected to be near normal to 20% 
enhanced on 27-Oct. MUFs may become 15-20% depressed in the southern 
Australian region on 28-Oct and possibly into 29-Oct due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity from another partially Earth directed CME. 
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au