[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 31 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 31 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (31 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
31 Oct   136    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0252UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    0330UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    0937UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.4    1254UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.2    1359UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1907UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M4.6    2110UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  X2.0    2120UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed first half of UT day then easing.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 26/1850UT, Ended at 31/1955UT.
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 31/2025UT and is in progress.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      147
Oct      116
Nov      115


2. FORECAST (01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
01 Nov   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced.
02 Nov   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced.    
03 Nov   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced.   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on 31-Oct were depressed 
by up to 20% in the southern Australian region during the local 
day. Northern Australian region MUFs were near normal becoming 
enhanced during local night hours. Minor fadeouts were observed 
31/0247-0304UT and 31/0326-0337UT. Ionospheric scintillation 
was observed at Darwin and Niue 31/0836-1450UT. Spread F was 
observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for 01-03 
Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au