[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 13 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
13 May   125    Fair-poor      

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1 12/2206UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0 12/2310UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.2    0133UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.3    0820UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M4.9    0933UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M6.6    0944UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.0    1747UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.6    2159UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0210UT 11/05, Ended at 1125UT 12/05
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 13 05 2024 1355UT and is in progress
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0155UT 11/05, Ended at 0010UT 12/05

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116


2. FORECAST (14 MAY - 16 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
14 May   120    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
15 May   100    Fair             Near predicted monthly values    
16 May   100    Fair             Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 
13 May and is current for 13-15 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 13-May were near predicted monthly values to 
25% enhanced, with enhancements observed predominantly in the 
northern Australian region. Sporadic E was observed at Canberra, 
Perth, Brisbane, Learmonth and Norfolk Island at varying times 
during the UT-day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced on 14-May. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on 15-16 May, with the chance of depressions 
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are 
expected.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au