[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 14 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
14 May   124    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    0148UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  X1.7    0209UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    1008UT  possible   lower  European
  X1.2    1255UT  probable   all    European
  X8.7    1651UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 13 05 2024 1355UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116


2. FORECAST (15 MAY - 17 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
15 May   126    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
16 May   120    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
17 May   120    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 
13 May and is current for 13-15 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 14-May were mostly near predicted monthly values. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 15-17 
May, with the chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian 
region due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts 
are expected.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au