[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 12 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (12 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
12 May   143    Fair           

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.2    0045UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.4    0552UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.6    1241UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1347UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1356UT  possible   lower  European
  X1.0    1626UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M4.8    2032UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.1    2206UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    2310UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 120% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day. 
      Absorption observed at times.

PCA Event : No event in progress.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116


2. FORECAST (13 MAY - 15 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
13 May   120    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values
14 May   120    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values    
15 May   120    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-May were 
near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Spread F 
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation 
was observed at Darwin, Weipa and Niue 11/1139-2040UT. A shortwave 
fadeout was observed in the Australian region 11/0101-0405UT. 
MUFs are now expected to be near predicted monthly values to 
15% enhanced over 13-15 May. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au