[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 17 August 24 issued 2333 UT on 17 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
17 Aug   158    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    1033UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1144UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    2153UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      131
Aug      119
Sep      119


2. FORECAST (18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
18 Aug   160    Fair-normal      15 to 25% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
19 Aug   160    Normal           15 to 25% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
20 Aug   160    Normal           15 to 25% above predicted monthly 
                                 values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 17-Aug were near predicted monthly values to 
25% enhanced. Mildly degraded conditions may have been experienced 
during local night hours last night due to a brief increase in 
geomagnetic activity associated with an earlier than expected 
CME arrival. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin 
and Weipa during the interval 17/1120-1244UT. MUFs are now expected 
to remain 15-25% enhanced over 18-20 Aug. Isolated shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au