[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 16 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Aug   170    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    1324UT  possible   lower  European

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      131
Aug      119
Sep      119


2. FORECAST (17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Aug   160    Normal           15 to 25% above predicted monthly 
                                 values
18 Aug   160    Fair             15 to 25% above predicted monthly 
                                 values    
19 Aug   130    Fair-normal      Northern Australian region MUFS 
                                 20% enhanced. Southern Australian 
                                 region MUFs 15% depressed.   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 92 was issued on 
15 August and is current for 15-17 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 16-Aug were near predicted 
monthly values to 35%. Ionospheric scintillation was observed 
at Niue and Weipa during the interval 16/0817-1340UT. MUFs are 
expected to be 15-35% enhanced over 16-18 Aug. Southern Australian 
region MUFs may become 15% depressed post dawn on 19-Aug due 
to expected geomagnetic activity on 18-Aug. Isolated shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au