[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 January 23) issued 0135 UT on 20 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (13 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18    19
10cm    209   228   234   228   222   220   219
AFr      10     9    17    10     5    11  ( 11)
Aaus     11     6    19    11     6    12  (  3)
T       105   132   120    92   125   143   147

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 0259UT, and an M4.0 at 
              1015UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.3 at 0211UT, an M3.6 at 2021UT, 
              and an M4.6 at 2101UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Jan 
Solar:        R2, with an M6.0 at 0342UT, and an M4.9 at 1431UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 15 Jan, a weak (12nT) impulse 
was observed at 1429UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.8 at 2329UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 17 Jan, a weak (14nT) impulse 
was observed at 2159UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.8 at 1035UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0403UT, an M1.7 at 1012UT, 
              and an M1.0 at 1027UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (20 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level, with a
chance of R2.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic activity is expected, with a slight chance of
G1 late in the week.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced during the week. Mild degradations due to increased
geomagnetic activity are possible late in the week. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible. 


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au