[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 January 23) issued 0132 UT on 13 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (06 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm    172   179   184   191   193   195   212
AFr       4     5     7     7     6     8  (  8)
Aaus      3     5     5     4     5     9  (  7)
T        65   104   120   118   126   118   123

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 Jan 
Solar:        R3, with an X1.2 at 0057UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 06 Jan, a weak (8nT) impulse 
was observed at 0056UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 0052UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0854UT, an M1.4 at 0949UT, 
              an M1.4 at 1508UT, and an M1.1 at 1911UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jan 
Solar:        R3, with an M1.1 at 0103UT, an M2.2 at 0901UT, 
              an M1.0 at 1322UT, and an X2.0 at 1850UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Jan 
Solar:        R3, with an M5.2 at 0016UT, an M1.1 at 0216UT, 
              an M2.7 at 0242UT, an M1.1 at 1108UT, an M1.4 at 
              1728UT, an M1.2 at 1748UT, and an X1.1 at 2247UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jan 
Solar:        R2, with an M2.5 at 0059UT, 
              an M5.6 at 0156UT, an M1.3 at 0610UT, and an M3.1 
              at 0833UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

12 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 0619UT, an M1.5 at 0646UT, 
              an M1.2 at 1130UT, an M1.0 at 1457UT, and an M1.1 
              at 1914UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (13 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels for the week,
with a chance of isolated R3 events.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a slight chance of
G1 on 19-Jan due to coronal hole effects. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced this week. Mild degradations are possible on 19-Jan due
to increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au