[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 January 23) issued 0059 UT on 27 Jan 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 27 JANUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (20 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY)
Date     20    21    22    23    24    25    26
10cm    218   209   199   189   180   172   151
AFr       4    11     7     5     3     5  ( 12)
Aaus      4    10     6     8     4     6  (  8)
T       111   125   130   124   143   142   132

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

20 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 1226UT, and an M1.6 at 
              1702UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 23 Jan, a weak (13nT) impulse 
was observed at 0340UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Jan 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.7 at 1011UT, an M1.4 at 1701UT, 
              and an M2.0 at 2236UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Jan 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.8 at 1306UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (27 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY)
Solar: 
R0-R1 conditions are expected on 27-Jan, R0 conditions, with a 
chance of R1 are expected over 28-29 Jan, R0-R1 conditions are
expected over 30-Jan to 2-Feb due to the likely return, on 30-Jan, 
of AR3181 or a similarly active sunspot region visible on STEREO-A
imagery which produced a large CME on 26-Jan.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 27-29 Jan, G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected over 30-Jan to 2-Feb due to the 
combined effects of high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial 
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position and the possibility
of geoeffective CMEs from an active sunspot region currently visible on 
STEREO-A imagery which produced a large CME on 26-Jan and is expected 
to arrive on the solar disk on 30-Jan.

Frequencies:  
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. 
Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting lower 
frequencies.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au