[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (19 November 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 19 NOVEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (12 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER)
Date     12    13    14    15    16    17    18
10cm     97    96   100   106   108   105   104
AFr      23     7     7     2     5     7 (  2)
Aaus     26     6     7     2    10     5 (  3)
T       -35    -1    38    53    61    58    60

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

12 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

13 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Minor to moderate depressions on some stations.
      Strongly degraded conditions on some stations. 

14 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant degradations.

15 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
A weak (21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer 
data at 1446UT on 16 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
      of degradations. 

17 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Initially depressed 10-15% 00-05UT.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Initially depressed 15% 00-05UT.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

COMMENT: Strongly depressed ionospheric conditions observed
on 12 and 13 Nov following coronal mass ejection induced
geomagnetic storm activity.
 
2. FORECAST (19 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Mostly low. Chance for moderate activity possible 
       later in week, if any any the solar region rotating onto
       the solar disk become active.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet. Recurrence suggests mild actvity
	      (to unsettled levels) during 25-26 Nov.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. 

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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