[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 November 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 26 NOVEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (19 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER)
Date     19    20    21    22    23    24    25
10cm    102    99   101   106   107   107   109
AFr       3    12     9     6     4     7 ( 12)
Aaus      8    18    14     7     7     9 ( 12)
T        65    66    21    59    66    91    95

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

19 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


20 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


21 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


22 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


23 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  no data available 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


24 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


25 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (26 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER)
Solar: Low to Moderate conditions expected with regions 706 and 707
capable of C-class and possible M-class events.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated Active intervals
possible for 26Nov-28Nov. Possible increase in geomagnetic activity 
towards the end of the week if a sizable coronal hole that is currently 
approaching geoeffective position, elevates solar wind stream parameters.   

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. MUFs expected to be normal.
SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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