[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (12 November 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 12 NOVEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (05 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER)
Date     05    06    07    08    09    10    11
10cm    141   129   130   124   141   105    95
AFr       1     4    22   116    47   101 ( 20)
Aaus      2     3    41    60    64    77 ( 17)
T        63    77    56    78    18   -55   -51

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

05 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/1F at 1130UT, an M1/SF at 1922UT,
	      and an M2/1N at 2229UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


06 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M9.3/2N at 0034UT, an M5.9 at 0057UT,
	      an M3 at 0157UT, and an M1 at 1953UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


07 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an X2.0 at 1606UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Severe Storm Levels 
A weak (33nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at
1053UT on 07 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


08 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 1549UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


09 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M8.9/2N at 1719UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels 
A weak (22nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at
0931UT on 09 Nov, and a moderate (58nT) impulse was observed at
1849UT on 09 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


10 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an X2.5/3B at 0213UT
Geomagnetic:  Active to Severe Storm Levels 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day,
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


11 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at
1712UT on 11 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


 
2. FORECAST (12 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Low to moderate declining to low later in forecast period.

Geomagnetic:  Active to storm levels becoming unsettled to
quiet later in the forecast period.

Frequencies:  Initially depressed 15-30% at times returning to
mostly near predicted monthly values later in the forecast period.
SWFs possible early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"