[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 January 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 JANUARY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (09 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    118   119   119   118   118   121   119
AFr      16    20    12     5    14     7 ( 12)
Aaus     18    18    16     9    17    14 ( 17)
T        85    19    42    63    42    70    42

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/2N at 0122UT, and an M3 at 0144UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at
1524UT on 09 Jan.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


10 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


11 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


12 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


13 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values local day.
      Depressed 15% local night hours.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values 
      over the UT day.


14 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


15 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.


 
2. FORECAST (16 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
Solar: Low to moderate.

Geomagnetic:
	16-18: Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm level
	       intervals possible.
	19-22: Returning to mostly unsettled to quiet.

Frequencies: 
	16-18: Depressions of 15-30% at times initially, with
	       frequencies mostly depressed 15% to normal.
	19-22: Returning to mostly near predicted monthly values.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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