[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 January 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 JANUARY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    120   123   120   135   129   130   122
AFr      21     9    15    10    11     8   (35)
Aaus     17    16    12    17    14    14   (50)
T        31    54    45    39    65    70    77

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Jan 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      10-20% at times.


17 Jan 
Solar:        High, with an M5.0 at 1750UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      5-15% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


18 Jan 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1/1N at 0017UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


19 Jan 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1/SF at 0532UT, and an M1 at 1240UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 10-20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 10-20%.


20 Jan 
Solar:        High, with an M6.1/2N at 0743UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 10-20% at times during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


21 Jan 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


22 Jan 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Active to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (23 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic:  Active to minor storm conditions early in the 
	      week, then mostly quiet to unsettled with 
	      active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Depressed 20 to 40% on 23-Jan, depressed 15 to 20% 
	      on 28-29 Jan, otherwise MUFs near normal. No SWFs.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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