[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (09 January 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 09 JANUARY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (02 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY)
Date     02    03    04    05    06    07    08
10cm    117   116   119   123   117   119   120
AFr       9    11    13    15    17    16 ( 10)
Aaus     11    17    19    18    16    24 (  7)
T        60    63    32    21    18    78   27

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

02 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of degradations.

03 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
              recorded at some high latitude locations. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions and degradations.

04 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of depressions and degradations. 

05 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an M6.9 at 0345UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
              recorded at some high latitude locations. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and significant degradations. 

06 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an M5.8 at 0629UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with short isolated 
              minor storm periods recorded at some high latitude 
              locations. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of depressions and degradations. 

07 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an M4/2N at 0404UT, and an M8.3/SF at 1027UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed.

08 Jan 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M1/1N at 0507UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs observed southern Aus/NZ
region this week, in association with sustained geomagnetic activity 
induced from a coronal hole wind stream. Two solar regions produced 
this weeks increased flare activity. A strong fadeout observed in 
Aus region on 05 Jan. 
 
2. FORECAST (09 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY)
Solar: Moderate, chance for high soalr activity. Two solar regions 
       remain flare, and solar mass ejection capable. Recently elevated 
       solar wind conditions, due to a coronal hole high speed wind 
       stream, now appear to be easing sooner than 27 day patterns suggested.

Geomagnetic:  Active periods possible 09-10 Jan due to possible
	arrival of weak mass ejections on 9 and 10 Jan. 
	27 day recurrent patterns then suggest activity to be mostly 
	quiet to unsettled. It should be noted however, that there 
	is a chance for mass ejection induced activity this week.

Frequencies:  MUFs expected to be generally near to 15% above predicted
	monthly values, with possible brief depressions of 15% after local 
	dawn on 10 and 11 Jan, southern Aus/NZ region only, if weak mass
	ejections arrive. 

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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